Nemesis: Lady Goat. Aside – Tipping the Scales

nemesismorv

Morvahna the Dawnshadow is my dream caster. I lasted about a week before changing back to Circle, because man I hate dice. She is the only caster that I constantly review upwards in power level. Why does she have life trader? She has a 13” threat, and if you’re caster is within 11” she can ram you and your caster definitely dies. Anywho, I digress!

Scales of Fate makes her. Fog of war in Circle, and purification are powerful. Scales of Fate alters the course of games. And she doesn’t really pay to use it with all of her healing. If you think she does, you haven’t seen her in game enough. I’ve been watching Will Pagani’s (skillt) videos and reading all of the threads, in addition to play experience. And she makes everything insane!

ladygoatLady Goat, Lady Goat, Oh Lady, Lady Lady, Lady Goat.

So I decided last week to work out how much the re-rolls improve your chances of success. With to hit rolls, your increase in efficiency is very powerful in a relatively obvious way. Here are some numbers:

Re-rolls on 2d6

Need   Basic Probability   Scales Probability

3+        97.22%                99.92%

4+        91.66%                99.30%

5+        83.33%                97.22%

6+        72.22%                92.28%

7+        58.33%                82.64%

8+        41.66%                65.96%

9+        27.77%                47.85%

10+       16.66%                30.54%

11+         8.33%                15.97%

12+         2.77%                  5.47%

Scales to Hit Chart

Re-rolls on 3d6

Need   Basic Probability   Scales Probability

7+        90.74%                99.14%

8+        83.79%                97.37%

9+        74.07%                93.28%

10+       62.50%                85.94%

11+       50.00%                75.00%

12+       37.50%                60.94%

13+       25.92%                45.12%

14+       16.20%                29.78%

15+         9.25%                17.64%

16+         4.62%                  9.03%

I haven’t done the extremes of rolls for 3d6, because scales’ effect is much larger near the center of the probability curve. What’s actually happening here, is that you take all of the curve below your target number, and break it up and sprinkle it back over the upper half again. It’s literally the icing on the bell curve cake! It works out as a +2 to hit for average rolls, and about a +1 at the extremes.

So our ‘averages’ become highly probable, needing 9s becomes about 50% likely. Okay, so say we’re needing 7s, and have 10 attacks, these are carnivored skinwalkers trying to eat nyss hunters. We probably land 6 of them, assuming very even probability. Then we auto kill those guys, and heal for 6d3. We also re-roll to hit the 4 misses. These will be sprinkled in among the attacks that do succeed, so while much of that 6d3 will go away, you will still come out ahead in health probably. Then we hit 60% of our missed rolls, so let’s call it two more. They pay for themselves in d3s of healing, so only 2-3 of your 6d3 needs to help to balance your health back out. While all of the attacks probabilities are based on re-rolling all misses, as long as you are more likely to hit than miss, Morvahna won’t suffer that much damage. That’s basically a free +2 for your carnivore unit. I stress again, she probably doesn’t expend that much effort to make them have +2 to hit. That alone makes it heinous! But she has loads of other targets and methods of healing, not to mention activating the carnivore unit after she scales of fate for something else so all of the 6d3 becomes relevant.

Damage increases are slightly harder to calculate, because we are banking on a new average, so we need to set a condition for re-rolls. On 2d6, we will re-roll 5s or less and then all 6s or less.

Roll     Chance      Scales 5s          Scales 6s

2           2.77%            0.77%              1.15%

3           5.55%            1.54%              2.31%

4           8.33%            2.31%              3.47%

5           11.11%          3.09%              4.63%

6           13.88%        17.73%              5.78%

7           16.66%        21.29%            23.60%

8           13.88%        17.73%            19.66%

9           11.11%        14.20%            15.74%

10         8.33%          10.64%            11.80%

11         5.55%            7.09%              7.86%

12         2.77%            3.54%              3.92%

It is interesting to note that you are more likely to roll the very low numbers if you are re-rolling 6s. Now the most telling number her is actually the average when re-rolling 5s and 6s. When re-rolling 5s our average becomes 7.83, when re-rolling 6s it becomes 8. So in terms of damage, re-rolling 5s is +0.83 Str and re-rolling 6s is +1 Str. Over say 6 attacks, the overall difference between re-rolling 5s and re-rolling 6s is 1 damage. If you need 6s to hit say, you pay for 2.4 re-rolls. Re-rolling 5s on damage, you pay for 2 more re-rolls. Re-rolling 6s on damage you pay an additional 2.4 re-rolls. So overall you pay an average of 9 or 10 health. So you pay one additional health on Morvahna for 1 more damage on your target. Those are the most reasonable re-rolls criteria to set yourself. Truth is you will probably get more risky as you roll depending on how much damage and how many 5s or 6s you roll, etc. So these numbers are ultimately more fuzzy than the to-hit probabilities. But they do give you an idea. That idea is that you can give your heavy +2 to hit, and +1 damage for 10 health. This is almost primal. So you can have most of the effects of primal, especially against not high ARM, and still lightning strike. Anyone who has ever played a stalker just had their jaw fall off, explode, knit itself together and then explode again.

So what has happened here for our first condition? All of the probabilities for 6+ results have been multiplied by 1.2777 and everything 5 or less by 0.2777.  Combined with never missing heavies with your warpwolf stalker, it’s quite a huge improvement in output. Say you are warped for strength and attacking a titan gladiator. Without scales you average 25 damage, while with scales you average 36! This is hugely dependent on your increase in accuracy. Against a stormwall, with arcane shield you would do 16 and instead do 21. It’s a less huge increase, but it adds up pretty fast.

WarpwolfStalker

Not so fat now!!!

It starts to become very expensive to re-rolls 7s, so only do it if you are on your last attack and need 8 or 9 to kill a thing. And try to do this early in the turn, so that Morvahna can get healed after paying the 10 or so health.

There is also an increase in damage for things like charging power swelled wolves of Orboros, and charging skinwalkers. I haven’t yet done the numbers, but I’d hazard it works out at about a +1. I can do it out if there is a lot of interest!

Stay Classy!

-Eoin/VP

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